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 The High Definition DVD Studio Support Petition Campaign |
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The Current State of the Bluray Format... Let's just say that "State of the Art" is the furthest thing from reality right now? I was writing the piece where I was interpreting and analysing the public statements by Paramount, Dreamworks and Viacom over their stunning decision last week, and ended up with SO MUCH material that I realized I just HAD to bring it all together in a separate piece right here - in order to attempt to clarify the situation without too much confusing rambling. In summary, from everything I can see, including these public statements, as well as rounding up intelligence from insiders from within and without the Bluray camp, it appears that I can only come to one opinion on this matter - a opinion that is almost certain to be shared by those in the know.... Bluray seems to be in the WORST IMAGINABLE state of shambles that anyone could have predicted. I do not see HOW it could be ANY worse than it actually seems to be. I just cannot picture any worse position for the format to be in at this juncture, 18 months after the start of the format war in April 2006, apart from if it also had lower sales than its competitor. From my point of view, this is no exaggeration... Of course, one can question the credibility of the sources for some of the information which has been compiled for this story. many insiders will post what they've been told by un-named sources, whispers in confidence, that sort of thing. But I truly believe that so much of this information is coming from so many directions, that it is just too hard to ignore. And other, credible analysts, are having similar thoughts. Based on these sources, this is an absolute worst case situation for the Bluray format, and it is about to get progressively worse, as it is my opinion that they are now losing control over events. Lets summarise what we feel is being indicated at this point, based on "insider intelligence" and "field observations". (1) The software challenges being encountered in getting the BD 1.1 player spec to function properly have been FAR steeper than the BDA anticipated, even when they moved the "deadline" again from May 2007, to November 2007. To further complicate matters, BD players are coming in various "shapes and sizes", if you will, meaning that code has to be refined and perfected on each hardware platform to ensure that they all behave the same with various software releases tested. The only BD 1.1 player announced to date has been delayed till 2008. Warner and other studios seem to have the expectation that these BD 1.1 players will be ready in November for them to release BD titles with advanced features, such as The Matrix - into which they have invested heavily. Indications are now that this can't happen till 2008! how happy is Warner? (2) The manufacturing problems with BD50 discs appear to be FAR from over, which has caught even sceptical observers like me by surprise. There is now talk that only Sony is able to manufacture these discs at anything close to viable yields - and by viable, we may be talking only 40%! And while BD "sources" have recently listed other BD50 replicators, beside Sony, in online forums, it now appears from insiders that non-Sony replicators are only seeing 10% yields in BD50 manufacture! That would mean that 90% of a run has to be discarded. Word is that these replicators, quite naturally, are not taking on commercial jobs and that other replication firms are naturally hesitant to invest the FAR higher sums of money required to get BD50 plants installed, until the technology works properly. Many of those who have invested in Bluray plants are only producing BD25. (3) Costs. While BD-DL production is said to be between 10% and 40%, the HD DVD replicators are apparently seeing 95% yields on HD DVD DL-30 discs. Perhaps, partly as a result of this, the true difference in manufacturing costs is said to be huge. While only those directly involved could know for sure whether the insider whispers are correct, the cost of BD50 replication is estimated to be between $6 and $6.50 per disc (based on a $5 differential between BD25 and BD50) compared to $1.05 for HD DVD DL30. (4) Talk of Sony subsidies has surfaced again, and some feel that Sony is not able to continue subsidising these massive costs as the volumes of disc runs get higher and higher as the two formats grow in the market. One poster indicates that any BD release that sells less than 100,000 copies may lose money, though we are uncertain whether that was with or without a subsidy factored in. (5) The BD-J programming language used by the Bluray format is said to be far more complicated and difficult to program for than the HDi language used on the HD DVD format. Studios have expressed frustration, as have insiders involved in the process. This has apparently forced studios supporting Bluray to invest more heavily in becoming programming companies instead of studios. And the programmers are expensive. Worse yet, indications are that testing these features has been made very difficult, due to the lack of working BD 1.1 players on which to test the code, and the hardware differences between the various BD player platforms in existence. (6) Due to what appears to be ill-thought out strategies on copy-protection, new Bluray players coming out are said to have been forced (apparently by Sony) to limit playback of BD-R/RE recordable discs, or of BDMV content from BD-R/RE discs. According to one Sony insider, the BD players were "never supposed to" be able to play these BDMV BD-R discs anyway, and that there was only a grace period (which has now expired) during which this was allowed, to help studios test. One insider happily defended his case by stating that Bluray players are not required to playback BD-R/RE discs anyway! (7) Sales of the PS3, on which a Bluray victory was apparently predicated have been much lower than projected. It is said that the studios were promised that the PS3 would sell 6 million units in the US by the end of this year, but has so far manged only 25% of that target. And the "software attach rates", the number of owners that buy movies, has been touted as 80% by Sony, yet appears to be as little as a quarter of that. (8) At least one BD studio is said to be very unhappy with Bluray. In my opinion, it is looking incredibly bad for the Bluray format right now, and if another major studio doesn't shift towards HD DVD in the next 3 months, it'll either be due to an absolute miracle, or to an absolutely enourmous amount of money. When the two formats launched last year, I was very critical of the seeming "unready" status of Bluray technology and felt that some of these issues would be a problem - but we never expected to see signs that it was still this bad over A YEAR after the Bluray format launched in June 2006. It's mind-blowing, really... And whatever parts of these indications are confirmed, will seriously damage any remaining credibilty that the Bluray format has left. And what about HD DVD in all of this mess? (1) Superior player specifications have been set and functioning since the very first player shipped, and are improved and refined through online updates as needed. Every HD DVD player, from first to last, is able to enjoy the full interactive full movie and interactive experience. Code reacts the same. Furhermore, the development of a "reference player" design by the HD DVD group and Microsoft has resulted in a standard platform that can be rapidly manufactured and brought to market by new manufacturer entrants at both the high end and low end. (2) & (3) Manufacturing of HD DVD discs is available from many, MANY more replication companies than Bluray, with a greater capacity available. Yields of Dual Layer HD DVD discs is said to be at 95%. Costs per disc are said to be significantly lower than Bluray. And the existence of manufacturing capability for "Hybrid" DVD/HD DVD discs allow the capability to produce releases that will play in any DVD player at standard definition, while still being able to be playerd at Hi Definition on HD DVD players. (4) Subsidies unknown on the HD DVD side, but said to be unecessary. (5) Programming for the HDi language, because it is related to HTML used for web programming is not only easier, but there are potentially more people available that are able to set to work producing software for the studios. There have been no reports of studios facing the same frustrations as with the BD side. (6) All HD DVD players are able to play content from HD DVD-R/RE discs, and even can play HD content recorded to regular DVD-R discs. (7) HD DVD player sales have skyrocketed recently, as deals for the A2 for as little as $210, including shipping, with 8 movies, have brought the mass market into play. And new players announced this week from Asia promise to bring the entry cost even lower than that before the holiday shopping season. (8) The HD DVD strategy appears to be working, and studios are now paying attention...
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