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 The High Definition DVD Studio Support Petition Campaign |
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What might Warner be thinking Right Now? September 10th 2007 What Might Warner be considering? The Paramount Studio and Dreamworks decisions to support HD DVD exclusively and abandon the Bluray format really woke the industry and observers up to the fact that there are some major underlying commercial concerns about the choice of format in this war. Sure, the subsequent campaign to paint P/D as switching solely for a "payoff" tried to deflect people from focusing on these issues, but no serious observer or decisionmaker is shallow enough to believe that a sum like that, even if real, could make a studio make what they consider to be a bad decision. At best, if there was a monetary amount involved, it may just have re-imbursed P/D for promotional or production money they may have realized had they continued to support BD, and/or other promotional help. We have to face that there seem to be very real commercial problems with the BD format. I'm sure that Warner is not ignorant of these issues, but the threat of a very public smear campaign like that inflicted on Paramount and Dreamworks may complicate their inevitable decision. Then again, it could make them realize that they are wasting their time with those "partners". After the campaign against Paramount I am sure that they (Paramount) would never consider Bluray again unless it was the only disc on the planet. Warner, like Paramount, has also taken a very noble, high road approach right the way through this format war. They have supported both formats to the best of their ability, despite (false) claims from BD supporters that they were somehow biased. They have given their full effort for a year and a half since product first launched, and probably two years before that to prepare. Warner has given the Bluray side every opportunity to perfect their product and solve the technical and logistical issues that were probably of great concern even before the launch of the format. But it seems that Bluray has not gotten over their hurdles yet, and there seems to be no indication that the biggest issues can be solved soon - such as replication reliability and capacity. Further, the stakes are now increasing to the point that the demands on the company to support BOTH formats is likely soon becoming a burden. By this I mean the sales volumes are increasing. If both formats suddenly went mass-market, Bluray production would almost certainly not be able to keep up with demand. HD DVD production could, given additional investment in verification equipment. Because the Bluray camp would not be able to keep up with production, we are now hearing supporters, and a BD spokesman, talking about "extending" this "war" period by another 18 months - prolonging uncertainty. The studio's response? Probably: "WTF?!" They have been slaving over both formats (and BD seems to require a LOT more effort than HD DVD) simply to give them both a chance to prove themselves, so they can NEVER be accused of making a hasty judgement. But this wasn't supposed to take this long, and they want to dispense with the "war" and get down to making very significant releases, in mass volume, and start making some money - before consumers get fed up and move on. But Bluray still seems to not be ready, and now proclaim another 18 months is needed - which in MY opinion means another 2 or 3 years, in reality. The HDM market cannot afford this long extension - as customers will likely turn their backs on HD Media in disgust. Warner's only viable decision is clear, and I would not be surprised if it has not already been made. The only commercially viable way for them to get on with it is to turn their back on Bluray and side with HD DVD exclusively. If they do this now, it is likely that other studios could also see fit cross the bridge to HD DVD in January next year, with neutral support. However, if Warner waits till January, then it may take further months for other studios to move, prolonging what I now see as the inevitable. And the only reason I feel some would want them to wait to January is just to "prove a little more" that they really did give Bluray a fair chance - which I think everyone already agrees they have anyway. The bottom-line, fundamental question that Warner, and other studios might have been asking themselves, in my view, is: "Can we afford to put the mass-market launch of HD Optical Media off by another 2 years, while we wait for Bluray to fix the rest of their problems and put in not only MANY times more production lines, but production lines that actually work properly and affordably ( which do not yet seem to have been invented, BTW)" It would be a massive gamble to wait another two years since (a) one does not even know if the BD tech would yet be working properly by then (in a VARIETY of critical production areas, not just replication) and (b) consumers would VERY likely have become so disgusted by then, that the market would be permanently damaged and perhaps never recover and succeed. It would truly be more than a massive "favor" to the BD camp to give them another two years' benefit of the doubt, which is the reason that I think massive amounts of money are being waved at Warner from the BLURAY side. But I think they know this would be the wrong call to make. At the end of it, the real issue is whether to drop BD now, or at CES. If they wait till CES they would have effectively extended the consumer confusion and doubt by another year, since they would arguably have squandered the holiday season. And their decision would also take time to sink in to consumers, so time is of the essence, in my view. There are some Bluray posters who claim that Warner will go BD exclsuive. Frankly, I do not see how Warner could go BD exclusive given the issues concerned. The only two choices I see are whether they give Bluray a little more time before they give up (simply for the public appearance) or whether they just write the format off now and try to get commercially sensible volumes in one format, HD DVD. There is no question in my mind that Warner recognizes that HD DVD is the only commercially viable proposition at this time, and that they may just be prolonging the agony and possibly injuring the HDM market further by waiting. The quicker they make the decision, the quicker the HDM market can start to gather momentum - momentum which the BD format will not be able to match, in my opinion, because of their technical and production capacity issues, not just their their player pricing. Warner will almost certainly go HD DVD exclusive at some point, of this I am convinced. And the above are some, tho not all, of the reasons that will factor into this decision. The appearance of a third, confusing, HD format at Radio Shack stores this week adds even more urgency to the situation. With low prices but very little in the way of credible movies, this format is destined to fail, in my view, but could serve to add further confusion to the market and could generate consumer unhappiness at just the wrong time.
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